Projected Lung Cancer Mortality Rates Among Women By 2030

In this study female lung and breast cancer mortality data was analyzed from W.H.O Mortality Database from 2008 to 2014. Countries with a population greater than 1 million must have reported data for at least 4 years between 2008 to 2014 for inclusion in this study. 52 countries fulfilled criteria: 14 from the Americas, 7 from Asia, 2 from Oceania, and 29 from Europe. Age standardized mortality rates in women for both cancers were reported as per 100,000 person years were calculated for each country based on W.H.O World Standard Population allowing for comparison of countries with different age distributions eliminating age as confounding variable.

Among women global mortality rate for lung cancer is projected to increase from 11.2 in 2015 to 16.0 in 2030, with the highest rates projected in Europe and Oceania, and the lowest projected as being in Asia and America.

Global mortality rate for breast cancer among women is projected to decrease from 16.1 in 2015 to 14.7 in 2030, with highest projected rate decreases in Europe, and lowest mortality rate predicted in Asia.

High income countries compared to middle income countries have the highest projected age standardized mortality rates from both lung and breast cancer by 2030. Higher income countries are more likely to have decreasing breast cancer mortality rates compared to middle income countries.

Limitations included such things as assumption that recent trends in lung and breast cancer mortality will continue, certain habits may alter cancer mortality rates, future screening technology and therapeutics may also lower rates, and due to small population size and lack of data no countries from Africa were included.